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Hyperscalers will capture 9% of 5G SA workloads by 2027
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Public cloud 5G SA workload revenue is expected to reach $5.4B over the forecast period
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The vast majority of 5G SA public cloud workloads will be run for MNOs, Dell'Oro said
Hyperscale Cloud Providers (HCPs), such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, are set to snag 9% of 5G standalone (SA) workloads by 2027, up from around 2% in 2022, according to an updated Dell’Oro Group report. But the overall market is being stymied by 5G SA delays.
Dave Bolan, research director at Dell’Oro Group told Silverlinings, the updated report revised Dell'Oro's estimates – things are moving slower than they expected when the original forecast was developed a year ago – and added in figures for edge computing which weren't previously included in its report.
Dell'Oro tipped 5-year cumulative revenues for public cloud 5G SA workloads to reach $5.4 billion by 2027, increasing at a 5-year compound annual growth rate of 65%. This forecast has been reduced due to the sluggish migration to 5G SA by mobile network operators (MNOs) and enterprises.
“The delay of 5G SA roll-outs is impacting the HCPs negatively,” Bolan told Silverlinings in an email. “It reduces their addressable market.”
Additionally, Bolan pointed out “advanced contracts have been announced by 5G core vendors that suggest it might be difficult for hyperscalers to get business in the near term.” That is, Ericsson and Nokia have already staked their claim in this space.
According to Bolan, "the vast majority" of 5G cloud workloads will come from mobile network operators, thanks primarily to their efforts around virtualized radio access networks (vRAN). For multi-access edge computing excluding vRAN, "we expect 25% will be Private MEC (Enterprise on-premises),” he added.
Bolan noted that Dish Wireless is the main operator that is using HCPs for 5G SA workloads today. Dish is one of the telecom pioneers in the public cloud world, hosting its 5G network core on the AWS cloud.
Private plans
Bolan had no comment at this time on which enterprises are most widely using 5G private networks. Major companies like Nestle and Bayer, however, are definitely moving ahead with their private 5G SA network plans.
The Dell’Oro report notes that many of the private 5G SA networks running today are still in proof of concept or trial mode and not in actual commercial operation. Bolan said that he expected the 5G private networks to properly go live in the next two to three years